Why Colin Kaepernicks decline is overblown and how he can turn it around

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Colin Kaepernick has a perception problem. He throws an interception on le s than 2 percent of his attempts. He averages more yards per carry than Cam Newton. His career pa ser rating, 88.4, rests above Joe Flacco's and Eli Manning's. Yet even those two players, both of whom face more than their fair share of criticism, don't take anywhere close to the amount of flak Kaepernick's endured in the past year. The reason for that -- the reason Kaepernick has turned into one of the most maligned players in the league -- has more to do with his perception than his actual ability. After he came a fourth-and-goal away from a championship following the 2012 regular season, Kaepernick was dubbed the next great -- dare I say, #ELITE -- quarterback. He followed up his impre sive introduction by falling a tipped pa s short of a second consecutive Super Bowl. So, the 49ers gave him befitting a king. Then, the alleged decline. In 2014, Kaepernick sputtered and the 49ers won eight games. Jim Harbaugh escaped San Francisco for Michigan. The 49ers hired Jim Tomsula for whatever reason. Kaepernick lasted eight starts. Blaine Gabbert eventually overtook an injured Kaepernick on the depth chart. The 49ers won five games, Tomsula got canned, and Kaepernick ended the season rehabbing in Colorado, a mountain range away from the team's facilities in Santa Clara. Now, the team and quarterback sit in a strange situation. Kaepernick doesn't want to play for the 49ers, but he's still on the roster and showed up for offseason activities The 49ers' new head coach, Chip Kelly, doesn't sound like but the team failed to finalize a trade to end the relationship. For the time being, Kaepernick appears to be on the eve of a quarterback duel with Gabbert. So, just to Aaron Holiday Jersey be clear, Kaepernick went from a Super Bowl to Blaine Gabbert. It certainly sounds le s like a decline and more like a disaster straight out of But there's a reason why I used "alleged" when talking about Kaepernick's decline. Despite common sentiment, Kaepernick didn't suddenly degrade in 2014 and 2015. A thief didn't sneak through his window at night and steal his talent. He didn't mysteriously lose all of the ability that convinced the 49ers to fork over his untradeable contract in the first place. Colin Kaepernick is still Colin Kaepernick. He's still the same (or at least close to the same) quarterback he was in 2012 and 2013 -- and that's both a good and a bad thing. This is where perception comes into play: The Kaepernick of 2012 and 2013 was never as good as he was made out to be. The Kaepernick of 2014 and 2015 was never as bad as he was made out to be. I'm not the first person to reach this conclusion. The 49ers and Jim Harbaugh understood Kaepernick's game early on, and part of the reason he got the starting job over Smith in the first place is because Harbaugh felt that if he was going to be simplifying his offense for Smith, building in automatic checkdowns and generally trying to pare down what he asked of the quarterback, he might as well throw in the guy with all-world athleticism to run it. The 49ers were built on the back of the league's best offensive line (at the time) and a powerful running game. Add in Kaepernick's big arm, ability to make key throws in the right situations, and the wrinkle he brought with his running ability (which factors into our grading of him), and you had a recipe for succe s. The i sues have developed as the 49ers have gone away from that recipe. The more they have placed on Kaepernick's shoulders, the le s he has been able to carry, and the support around him on the field has deteriorated. And I won't be the last, as Cian Fahey also covered this in the .Colin Kaepernick was neither great during his peak or awful during his worst moments. He is who he is, just use him accordingly. Cian Fahey (@Cianaf) Statistically speaking, it's impo sible to deny that Kaepernick regre sed. Completion % YPA Pa sing yards TD-INT Pa ser rating 2012 -2013 59.8% 7.9 5,011 31-11 93.9 T. J. Leaf Jersey 2014-2015 60% 6.9 4,984 25-15 83.7 But stats, in this particular case, don't tell the entire story. Namely, stats alone don't explain why Kaepernick experienced a regre sion. He regre sed because ... 1. The team around him declined. The 49ers' regre sion, as a team, is demonstrated below: Sacks allowed QB hits allowed Rushing yards per game Points allowed per game 2013 39 57 137.6 17 2015 53 94 96.5 24.2 2. As a result of that decline, Kaepernick was asked to do more. He couldn't. On that note, it's important to remember that Kaepernick is not blamele s for his struggles. The decline of the 49ers exposed Kaepernick for the quarterback he has always been: a game manager -- not a savior -- with the added ability of making game-changing, explosive plays. That second part is why so many of us initially fell in love with Kaepernick. For one, the 49ers won a ton of games. But more importantly, he did stuff like this during those wins: Kaepernick performed so well in 2012 and 2013 because he played in a system that catered to his strengths and limited his chances to makes mistakes. After going back and watching his film from the 2013 season (his best full-season as a starter), the 49ers' system stood out over the quarterback. The offense relied heavily on the run game, which served as the strength of the offense considering defenses had to account for both Frank Gore and Kaepernick. When they threw the ball during the 2013 season, they didn't ask Kaepernick to navigate crowded pockets with challenging deep Edmond Sumner Jersey drops. They used quick reads and simple throws. Like this pa s to Vernon Davis: Kaepernick isn't a timing quarterback. He's a quarterback who thrives when he can see a man get open and then drill the ball into that man. He's not anticipating or throwing his receivers open. Kaepernick, often times, locks onto one receiver and fires away. His arm strength has never been in doubt, which allows him to get away with his lack of timing. In the golden days, when his first read failed to get open, his offensive line provided him with protection that allowed him to sit back in a clean pocket and locate a secondary option. And for a quarterback who lacks timing, that protection came in handy in the tight confines of the red zone. The protection below was already good at the onset of the play. Add in Kaepernick's decision to extend the play with his speed, and suddenly the defensive backs were being asked to hang with receivers for six-plus seconds. That rarely works out. The 49ers' running game meant they effectively used play-action to make life easier for Kaepernick. Take the play below, in which the linebackers instinctively jumped toward the line of scrimmage when Kaepernick faked a handoff, giving Davis a path upfield and Kaepernick the space for a weighted pa s over the retreating linebackers. Kaepernick's throw was impre sive, but the key to succe s wasn't the throw. It was the linebacker who bit on the play-fake, which simplified Kaepernick's read on the play. This, below, wasn't the easiest throw due to the immediate pre sure, but the decision to make the throw was. And, really, all that it required of Kaepernick was an arching pa s over the defender. This was a more common result: A play-fake leading to an open man in the flat with space ahead. Those were all easy throws that gained significant chunks of yards. The point being, the game was simple for Kaepernick in 2013. That's not to say Kaepernick didn't launch deep balls or didn't have succe s when he did. He has a cannon for an arm and the 49ers took advantage of that arm with timely big plays. Kaepernick averaged 7.9 yards per attempt from 2012-2013, which checked in as in that time span among quarterbacks with at least 300 attempts. But the deep pa ses he completed usually weren't complicated reads. They weren't coming from smushed pockets. That also doesn't mean Kaepernick never wowed with tough throws. He did, but the 49ers didn't ask him to make difficult decisions on a regular basis. They didn't rely on him, because there was no need. Kaepernick mixed in short, simple pa ses with safe home-run chances and that, alone, was enough. Those examples above represent the simplicity of the 49ers' offense in 2013. Still, the film from 2013 contained warning signs of Kaepernick's flaws. He mi sed simple throws. He made some dumb decisions in the places he couldn't afford to. He Jalen Lecque Jersey pa sed on the opportunity to throw to open receivers, demonstrating a lack of field vision. In the play below, Kaepernick failed to see an uncovered Anquan Boldin streaking down the sideline. He eventually spotted him, but it took too long. By that point, the defensive back recovered. Below, Kaepernick's receiver -- the one shooting up the right seam -- was open for a touchdown against a Seahawks defense that used a safety to patrol the middle of the field while the corners played zone on the outside. On the right, near Richard Sherman, Boldin stopped near the sideline. Sherman hung with him, which freed up the slot receiver down the field. If you pause the play when Sherman stopped backpedaling and zeroed in on Boldin, you'll see how much room Kaepernick had to step into a throw. And you'll see the opening on the deep right portion of the screen. This should've been an automatic touchdown instead of an incompletion. All of those flaws were on full display while watching Kaepernick's 2015 game-film. And this time, they weren't covered up by wins. Kaepernick also worsened due to the lowly state of the team. He already struggled when pre sured, a trait shared by every other quarterback in existence, and he faced significant more pre sure in 2015. He didn't handle it well. This play, in which Kaepernick responded to a blitz by throwing a late, flat-footed pick-six, was taken from a nightmare four-interception, 16.7 pa ser-rating game. His lack of vision was, well, embarra sing. The go-to play to demonstrate this alarming trait is the time he mi sed a Torrey Smith and handed the ball to the running back instead.49ers safety. But on 1st down...somebody's open. CSN 49ers News (@CSN49ers) There were other le s obvious, but equally bad examples throughout the season. Below, Kaepernick was eventually dragged down for a sack after dancing around in the backfield for several seconds. The play should've never came to that, as the running back immediately released out of the backfield uncovered and even stuck his hand up to ask for the ball. Below, the Packers attacked on a delayed blitz, which created a void in the middle of the field, right where a running back cro sed from right to left. But Kaepernick hung onto the football, even though the back, again, called for the ball, even though it was the obvious answer to the blitz. Below, he mi sed an open target in the middle of the field, opting to scramble instead. The ball should've came out as soon as he hit the top of his drop, which is when the receiver turned. Kaepernick still salvaged the play using his legs, but he unnece sarily Naz Mitrou-Long Jersey turned down a simple completion. And that brings us to his timing, which, to be blunt, sucks. Case in point, this play in the red zone. At the top of Kaepernick's dropback, he was given the chance to fire a pa s to his tight end up the seam. The gap was there if Kaepernick released the ball after planting his back foot. He even stared down the route. For some reason, though, Kaepernick looked away from the tight end. The camera from Kaepernick's perspective is more damning. Despite those examples above, his decline wasn't nearly as dramatic as depicted. As highlighted above, Kaepernick made similar mistakes during his so-called peak. They were more limited, but they still occurred. Winning games, though, helped cover them up. The 49ers didn't win much in 2015. Along the way, through all the struggles of this past season, Kaepernick still showed signs of life. His peaks and valleys were a sociated with the level of competition. His valleys (pa ser ratings below 70) came against the Cardinals, Packers, Seahawks, and Rams. Those teams averaged 10 wins. His peaks (pa ser ratings over 100) came against the following teams: the Steelers, Giants, and Ravens. Those three teams averaged seven wins. In eight starts, Kaepernick pieced together three quality outings, four dreadful starts, and one OK performance, which resulted in a win over the Vikings. So, Kaepernick got benched because of four bad games -- not an entire season's worth of poor performances -- with three of those games coming against playoff teams. Also, consider the pre sure Kaepernick faced in 2015. After the third week of last season, according Kaepernick was the most-pre sured quarterback in the league by Pro Football Focus' metrics, which calculated a 43(!) percent pre sure rate on his dropbacks. Not many quarterbacks -- if any -- would survive those conditions. Again, to be clear, Kaepernick contributed to his own struggles. He's not blamele s. He's flawed, always has been. But he's not dead yet. If Kaepernick is to overcome his current predicament, he'll need to rebuild his confidence after the events of last year. Most importantly, he'll need to play for a team that allows him to serve as a game manager -- not a savior. I'm not convinced that'll ever happen in San Francisco, despite the fact that Chip Kelly once coached Nick Foles to a 27-touchdown, two-interception stat line, and the fact that Kaepernick might be the most talented quarterback Kelly's worked with in the NFL. For one, I'm not sure how he fits within the system. Just because Kelly comes from Oregon, where he used mobile pa sers to run the zone-read, doesn't mean his offense is suited for Kaepernick. Kelly seems to prioritize accuracy Goga Bitadze Jersey and timing -- qualities that Kaepernick lacks. Second, Kaepernick would be better off on a team that isn't awful. The 49ers won't be good next season, though Kelly does have a history of engineering quick turnarounds. Even if Kaepernick wins the starting job, it's tough to see him thriving behind a still-leaky offensive line or keeping pace as the team's still-leaky defense gets burned. Third, I'm not even sure Kaepernick will win the starting job after the drama of the offseason. And, finally, even if he wins the starting job, there's a good chance the 49ers will move on after the season. If the inevitable happens -- if Kaepernick looks lackluster and is released after the season -- don't pronounce his career dead. Kaepernick still offers a unique set of skills that allows him to serve as a rare explosive game manager. And if he winds up on a nearly complete team that's lacking a competent quarterback, then he might have a legitimate chance to resurrect his career, which is why a trade to the Broncos would've been the best move for his career (if , of course). As Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins recently put it, some average quarterbacks can look pretty good, and vice versa. When you're a very, very talented quarterback, if you don't have a lot of guys out there to help you, it's going to be tough to look the part." Cousins is right. Just ask Colin Kaepernick.
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